Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Ted Cruz is claiming his decisive win in Wisconsin is a game changer for his campaign. But, his chances of being the nominee hinge on an open convention since he continues to be short of Donald Trump’s overall delegate lead.

While the junior Senator from Texas may have won this battle, he likely will not be winning the war. 

Five Thirty Eight is well known for tracking and predicting elections. They show that Cruz has only secured 54% of his delegate target. It’s pretty much statistically impossible for Cruz to win 1,237 delegates outright, so Trump supporters need to hold tight and look at the overall picture.

New York’s primary is April 19th. And the Empire State has a big haul of 95 delegates up for grab. Trump currently has a 99% chance of winning his home state. That will be a YUGE boost.

Trump is the only candidate who is able to win the golden number of delegates to secure the nomination on a first ballot. The #NeverTrump gang is lining up behind Ted Cruz, not because they like him, but because they are using him to get to a contested convention. And if that happens, all bets are off as the delegates pick the nominee. And with top Republicans seeking to nominate Paul Ryan, Cruz will be shut out.

At this point of the primary the options are Trump or a contested convention. Which one are you supporting?


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